Caption: Canya Amy is posing a real threat to a Valpolicella home-town victory (Photo: Steve Whalland)
Betting analyst MATT McCANN offers advice on successfully navigating Puntersland
The Queensland Winter Carnival will already be under way by the time this article hits the pavement, but with the major finals scheduled for the night of July 4, there is still time to get our act together and come up with a short list of value runners who will be aimed at the big features.
First up, lets focus on the stayers, and while I still think Raider’s Guide has upside with a few more distance runs under his belt, I have really warmed to the recent performances of Canya Amy.
Her greatest asset is the fact that she can camp just off the leaders and still find the line.
I was highly impressed with her ‘715’ heat win at The Gardens, while her performance in the final was full of merit when she was forced deep early by outsider Sin Rap Explode and thereafter found herself in the uncustomary role of backmarker whereas Valpolicella was ironically full steam ahead up front after landing straight on the bunny at box-rise.
While the Queensland champ will have the home ground advantage, I reckon the Albion Park layout will suit Canya Amy and I think she will prove very tough to get past.
Those looking for a runner at juicier odds should consider the ultra-consistent Drill Sergeant, who always gives a sight with his on-pace racing style and he also ticks the track experience box after winning a heat of the Garrard’s Gold Cup before a very honest 2nd behind Valpolicella in the Final back in early February.
The current quote of $5.00 just to run a place is appealing.
Now for a look at the Brisbane Cup.
Even at this early stage I have settled on two runners and provided Canya Amy can do the right thing by us in the Queensland Cup then perhaps gun sire Sennachie can claim a unique double if All Natural can follow in his father’s footsteps and claim the big Group 1 sprinting event.
Boasting a strike-rate of over 50% from 40+ starts, All Natural blotted the copybook when squeezed out of play early in the Golden Easter Egg Final behind Mackenna.
He then regained his mojo with a tradesman-like performance in a ‘best 8’ at headquarters and my feeling is that his preparation will be finely tuned towards Brisbane Cup glory.
From south of the border, Overflow Beau will trek north yet again, this time on a quest for redemption.
After a booming start to his career which included victory in the Rising Stars Final at Albion Park in mid-November, Overflow Beau lost his way, winning only two of next 11 starts and appearing hesitant to push through gaps at critical moments.
A fine 2nd to Good Odds Cobber at Wentworth Park a few weeks ago gave hope that he was regaining his best form, and he returned a week later to confirm matters by comfortably holding Zipping Megatron at bay.
Since then, his much-improved box manners has landed him the Brother Fox Final at Dubbo and so he will soon head north brimming with confidence, looking to avenge his Queensland Derby defeat.
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