Caption: Cawbourne Magic was on the quick back-up after scoring over 600m at Dapto
Betting analyst MATT McCANN offers advice on successfully navigating Puntersland
When the big races roll around the quality of the fields obviously can be exceptional.
A finer study of all the relevant statistics and race replays is required given that a range of different form lines may need to be reviewed.
In sorting through such depth of form, preparation patterns are a key element regarding expected performance as opposed to actual result, yet this aspect is frequently overlooked by rank-and-file dog punters.
In my role as a Greys Bookie for Unibet, it is crucial that I acknowledge which dogs the smart money has supported. Often there is a distinct correlation between market movers and positive prep patterns.
A recent bumper Sandown Park card that featured Group 1 heats of both the Melbourne Cup and the Bold Trease highlighted the significance of an ideal preparation and the respect that pro punters place on this factor.
Take the first heat for the stayers for instance:
Cawbourne Magic was on the quick back-up after scoring over 600m at Dapto just two days earlier. As a stout run-on type the initial expectation was that the marketplace would avoid this dog for fear of him racing flat next time, but our wiser clients would not be deterred. They ultimately agreed with my Unibet colleague who described the Dapto win as the perfect ‘barrier trial’, a statement proven correct a mere 48 hours later.
Conversely, Moraine Suzie’s relatively light preparation for heat two was no less interesting from a betting perspective as she was very heavily supported in thrashing her rivals. As the pin-up girl of this column, Moraine Suzie was cuddled in trading at the offices of Unibet as her amazing, natural stamina reserves have been previously well documented. The fact that she was still on the fresh side in her second preparation as a stayer only boosted our confidence as we attempted to minimise our liability on an increasingly popular greyhound.
Another runner who seemingly benefitted from ‘fresh legs’ was Zippy Tesla. This seasoned campaigner’s schedule altered from 10 runs in 8 weeks to then 4 runs in 7 weeks leading up to victory in the first heat of the Melbourne Cup in which he was also rock solid in betting.
Other dogs can simply thrive on competition and produce solid figures week in, week out. A dog like El Dorado is a prime example with the marketplace acknowledging his 50% career strike rate; maintained over 30+ starts. He never budged from his opening quote in his Cup heat and duly saluted.
Plaintiff is a brilliant box dog, but he qualified for the Final the hard way – forced into an unfamiliar chasing role on a testing, wet track. Fortunately, he had been steeled for this challenge months earlier, initiated via a highly successful provincial track winning streak, touring in two States, long before this current Group 1 tilt.
At the close of betting, the favourites had flipped with Plaintiff clearly the top pick ahead of She’s a Pearl who was on the drift.
I have therefore been able to link five vastly different training routines with positive marketplace recognition. The outcome may not always be so comprehensive, but there is little doubt in my mind that preparation patterns are a decisive factor. This is especially the case in highly competitive fields in which only a couple of lengths separates the leading hopes.